On June 11th, the lithium battery giant Ningde Times listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s ChiNext, and the opening rose 20% to 44%, which was a commendable result. However, the recent lithium battery sector has experienced an index decline. The main reasons for this phenomenon are:

On the one hand, from June to September 2017, due to market investors’ expectations for the entire lithium battery sector being overfull, the periodical increase was astonishing, reaching 41.07%, and the leader Ganfeng Lithium (002460) even increased. Over 150%, the total market value once reached 75.4 billion yuan. The demand for a large number of profitable disks to be safe has directly led to a long-term adjustment of the sector.

On the other hand, since 2018, the transitional policy of new energy vehicle subsidies and the New Deal has also become an important factor in the further decline of the lithium battery sector——The policy clearly stipulates that from February 12 to June 11, 2018 During the transitional period of the New Energy Vehicle Subsidy New Deal, the subsidy for passenger cars and passenger cars registered during this period will be implemented at 0.7 times of 2017; the subsidy for trucks and special vehicles will be implemented at 0.4 times of 2017.

Compared with the transition period, the subsidy for new energy vehicles for 100-150 kilometers will be cancelled after June 12; subsidies for 150-200 kilometers will be reduced by nearly 40%; subsidies for 200-250 kilometers will be reduced by about 5 %; and the level of 250-300 kilometers increased by more than 10%; the level of 300-400 kilometers increased by about 45%; the level of 400 kilometers and above increased by 60%.

So for vehicle and battery manufacturers, it is the primary task to reduce as much as possible the inventory of vehicles and batteries with a range of less than 200km before June 12, which has led to a short-term decline in demand for lithium carbonate. However, the subsidy for the class above 250 kilometers after June 12 is more than the subsidy during the transition period. Consumer demand was postponed to after June 12, which resulted in the downstream only digesting inventory without replenishing or even not replenishing inventory. In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate did not increase its production capacity significantly, and the price caused by downstream non-replenishment of inventory appeared. Fell.

This also explains why the sales of new energy vehicles have soared and the production capacity of lithium carbonate has not increased significantly, their prices have fallen, and the price drops will intensify the wait-and-see downstream and further reduce the willingness to restock. This It will bring small lithium carbonate manufacturers and distributors to lower prices in order to sell more inventory.

The combination of multiple factors such as the reduction of subsidies received by downstream vehicle manufacturers, the reduction of shipments by midstream battery manufacturers, and the decline in prices of upstream lithium mineral products have made the entire lithium battery industry sector full of strong uncertainty in the first half of the year.

After the implementation of the new subsidy policy on June 12, the above situation is expected to change.

The new subsidy policy after June 12 is clearly aimed at encouraging new energy vehicle manufacturers to develop models with high mileage and high energy density. The entire lithium battery industry will further transform into a ternary material lithium battery market with greater battery energy density. In the past, a large number of low-quality and low-efficiency lithium iron phosphate battery products will withdraw from the market due to the cancellation or substantial reduction of subsidies. The entire lithium battery industry It will enter the mid-to-high-end field, and the concentration of each segment of the industry chain is expected to be greatly improved, and the industry can expect a stable and orderly development.

At the same time, from the institutional market research situation, affected by the new subsidy policy, there will be a process of early demand release for new energy high-energy models from July to August, which will have a certain pulling effect on the industry chain. It will continue to prepare for the end of the year and step up production scheduling. The production schedule in June has begun to increase, and it is expected that the industry chain will usher in a peak season in the third quarter of the year.

It is worth noting that, as the lithium battery industry chain is gradually changing from the chaotic and chaotic situation in the previous high-speed development to orderly development and increased concentration, leading companies in various sub-sectors are more hopeful and full Benefit from the follow-up new subsidy policy and mid-to-high-end development strategy.

In addition, although the ternary battery has officially become the mainstream trend of the lithium battery industry, and high nickel has become the focus of attention of the industry and market investors, from the current industry chain situation, all links still need to run in, and the performance There is still a long way to go to cash it out. If you blindly pursue thematic investments in ternary materials-related companies, even if short-term profits are substantial, it may be difficult to escape the fate of “same source of profit and loss”.